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RSG (formerly Resurgence) should defeat Motivate.Trust Gaming on Tuesday, but we can’t agree with the online esports betting sites that have MG.Trust priced as $6.40 underdogs. At this price, MG.Trust have an implied probability of winning of just 15.6%, which is considerably lower than expected.
Admittedly, RSG have not been playing poorly of late, but they have yet to win a single match across the opening six, with four draws and two losses (0-4-2).

Motivate.Trust Gaming have hardly been more impressive (0-2-1), but they had played just three games, so it’s hard to make any conclusions. Moreover, MG.Trust forced a draw against the current tournament leaders, Execration and came very close to achieving the same feat against Army Geniuses last weekend.

A draw seems like the most likely outcome, but at $6.40 with the top betting sites, we recommend a smaller position on Motivate.Trust Gaming.

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Lilgun have yet to win a game, but they have played just two – one defeat against the current leaders, Execration and a draw against Neon Esports. Nigma Galaxy SEA, on the other side, are 1-2-0 with a win against Execration and two draws against RSG and Army Geniuses.

According to those results, Nigma Galaxy seem stronger, but they’re 0-1 in the head-to-head with Lilgun, who won their last meeting in January. What’s more, Nigma Galaxy are not that much better individual talent-wise, nor were they very convincing in their recent outings.

A draw seems like the most likely outcome, and at $2.01, this is a bet we’ll happily take. Alternatively, LIlgun with a +1.5 map handicap ($1.51) is a safer option, albeit at much lower odds.

?More esports betting tips

?Lilgun and Omega Esports will lock horns in the opening match of the tournament. It will mark their fourth meeting of the year, with Lilgun winning the first bout 2-0 but getting swept in the next two – most recently two weeks back at Asian New Bloom.

The odds on Omega might seem low, but it’s a fair price in our book. Lilgun haven’t shown anything of note for the last few weeks and enter this match on a five-game losing streak, whereas Omega have claimed two titles this year and come into this clash with four wins from their last five outings.

Omega are far from a top-tier SEA Dota 2 team, but they are playing well. They have beaten Lilgun before and seem to be very consistent against weaker teams, so we have to trust them to cover the map handicap.

TNC Predator enter this tournament with a lot to prove, having finished in fourth last season to miss out on the 2021 Singapore Major. Although it’s hard to argue TNC deserved to finish inside the top three in February, they would have made the cut had they not lost 0-2 to Execration in the tournament opener.

TNC went on to defeat Vice Esports, T1, BOOM Esports, and 496 Gaming, but they dropped the ball against Neon Esports and Fnatic. That was still better than Execration, who ended the season with a 1-5 run with their only other win coming against 496 Gaming.

TNC are 6-1 since the start of April, while Execration are 5-1 in the same stretch, albeit against slightly weaker opponents. Regardless, Execration seem to be in good form and should be able to force a tight series.