Movistar Riders lost their first match of Group D against Betera (former Question Mark), marking one of their biggest defeats of the last two months. However, unexpected results should be common at ESL Challenger League Season 46: Europe, as it is one of the first tournaments to be played on Counter-Strike 2.

1win won CCT East Europe Series #2 and CCT Online Finals #3 at the end of September, but then failed to make it through ESL Challenger at DreamHack Winter 2023: European Open Qualifier with a 7-13 defeat against The Chosen Few. That shock result had to do with the tournament being played on CS2, considering 1win have beaten much stronger teams over the last three weeks.

1win are rightly priced as favourites, but considering how volatile games are since the transition to CS2, a bet on Movistar Riders at plus money makes more sense.

SAW edged past Pompa Team (16-13, 19-5) in the first round of Group C, while Looking4Org defeated EYEBALLERS (2-1). Since that win, L4O have played two games at Esportal Clash Open, where they went 1-1 with a 2-0 sweep of Hawks and a 1-2 loss against Witchers.

Those results don’t make much sense, but teams have struggled with consistency across all regions since the transition to CS2. SAW have produced similarly confusing results recently, with a 1-2 loss against For The Win at Aveiro Techdays Cup 2023, proving that the teams’ past results from CS:GO tournaments don’t mean much.

Most games at this stage look 50-50, so we prefer Looking4Org at $2.10. They’re not very stable on CS2, but L40 have enough talent to defeat SAW.

Pompa Team have not looked good over the last month, struggling to make much noise even in some lesser events. They have picked up a few wins over their dry streak, but not once did the Polish squad play a good series when faced with a half-decent opponent.

Things haven’t improved since the transition to CS2, as Pompa Team have yet to win a game on the new game version. They have lost against AVT Gaming (5-13) and have since added a 6-13 defeat against Preasy and 0-2 against SAW.

Team Spirit have shown excellent form over the last two months and are 17-4 since Dunav Party LAN. That includes just one victory on Counter-Strike 2 (2-0 vs RUBIK), so we have to take those results with a grain of salt. Still, Team Spirit is in much better shape compared to the Pompa Team, which is reflected in the offered betting odds.

Team Spirit to sweep the struggling Pompa Team at $1.61 is a good offer.

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To start the last day of Group A action, we have Fnatic taking on Entropiq. At the time of writing these two teams are currently sitting second and third in the group with identical records, only separated by a four round differential.

Fnatic has had one of the most interesting runs in this group. Starting off with a big loss against Ninjas in Pyjamas, then struggling but beating LookingForOrg and coming out the next day and putting away G2 in three maps. In the two wins that Fnatic have enjoyed through the first 3 games, Valentin “poison” Vasilev has amassed massive kill counts, 79 and 57 kills, proving why Fnatic went and got him join the team before the tournament started.

Entropiq brings solid form into this match up, with at the time of writing beating all of the teams that have crossed passed with them. Beating both LookingForOrg and Mouz 2-0, and only losing to Ninjas in Pyjamas who haven’t lost yet.

This is a big match-up that bring two solid teams and highly ranked teams in the Counter-Strike world, add in the fact that they both must win to consolidate their top 3 placing in the group. We suggest that this series should be a close on. So taking the over 2.5 maps market at $2.00 is the smart way to go.

Before the tournament, this series between G2 and Ninjas in Pyjamas would have been expected to be for top spot in Group A. However, G2 have now dropped 2 games and sit outside the top 3 at the time of writing, whereas NiP are undefeated and haven’t been troubled in most of their maps throughout the round robin.

NiP have been ultra-impressive in their first three BO3s, winning 2-0 against Fnatic and Entropiq, and losing their only map of the round robin in overtime against Mouz, where they ultimately took the series 2-1. As we referenced in our last preview of the Group A round robin, Fredrik “REZ” Sterner is having an MVP type of performance for NiP in the early stages of ESL Pro League. “REZ” is currently averaging a 1.46 rating out of 2 and owning the highest rating and highest kill to death difference of +55 at the event.

Even though G2 was one of the pre-tournament favourites, NiP has shown that they are going to be no easy beat in this series. Take the $1.90 on offer with the top Esport betting sites for the over 2.5 maps and enjoy this match-up of two CS GO heavyweights.

Finishing of the Group A action is a series between bottom placed and win-less LookingForOrg and fourth place Mouz. Mouz will need to take care of business here and do so in dominant fashion, to put the pressure on the top 3 teams and with results falling their way, potentially fall into play-offs.

Whereas for LookingForOrg will be trying to secure a win and go home with something more than just the experience they have gained from competing in ESL Pro League Season 15.

Mouz look like a different outfit in this tournament after reconnecting Aurimas “bymas” Pipiras with the team. He has been very consistent, being either the first or second on the scoreboard for every series Mouz have played so far. With that consistency, “bymas” has earned himself the average rating of 1.17 out of 2, being the fifth best so far in the tournament.

Mouz should be winning this match-up 2-0, but there isn’t a lot of value in these markets. So we suggest taking Mouz at the alternative rounds handicap of -11.5, currently sitting at $1.50 with GG Bet, is the way to go.

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