XSET got off to a solid start to NAL Stage 3 and crushed beastcoast (7-2) on Tuesday, only to lose against the in-form Parabellum Esports (5-7) on Wednesday. Even though going 1-1 doesn’t look bad, it’s not like XSET have shown much.

Soniqs won against Spacestation Gaming (7-5) on day one, largely thanks to Pablo “Gryxr” Rebeil, who had an excellent performance, with a 1.63 rating and +10 KD. The 2021 NAL Finals MVP couldn’t replicate those figures on Wednesday when Soniqs won against DarkZero, but he still showed up with 1.12 and +2 KD.

Due to their shaky showings in the first week, XSET are rightly priced as underdogs, but it’s easy to forget that this is one of the most stacked rosters in the NAL that should bounce back and compete for a top finish. It’s tough to say when that will happen, but XSET are a good bet at evens or better against Soniqs, who they are 3-0 up in the head-to-head since NAL 2021 Stage 3.

Parabellum Esports picked up a surprise victory on the opening day of NAL Stage 3, beating Oxygen Esports 7-4 with a solid performance on Border. Although picking Border was a costly mistake from Oxygen Esports, we shouldn’t undervalue what Parabellum showed on the day, especially Alexandre “BlaZ” Thomas (1.75 rating).

BlaZ wasn’t as good on day two, but he still averaged a 1.12 rating in Partabellum Esports’ 7-5 victory against XSET. Notably, Jameson “KoolAid” Lancaster, who had a rough start to the stage, popped off against XSET, with a 1.51 rating and 15/8 KD.

Spacestation Gaming are 0-1-0-1, which isn’t terrible considering they had to play Soniqs (5-7) and Oxygen Esports (8-7). Their win against Oxygen was deserved, but stats-wise, SSG were the worse team, with Alexander “Yeti” Lawson their best-performing player at 1.15 and +2 KD.

For this match, it’s hard to doubt Parabellum Esports, even though you could argue they’ve overperformed. But even if that’s the case, Parabellum have shown a lot more than Spacestation Gaming.

Astralis lost to DarkZero Esports (6-8) on Tuesday, which was quite surprising since it happened on Theme Park, which is one of their best maps. It was a close game, but it’s hard to defend Astralis and Matthew “Dpfire” Macway, who struggled on day one with a 0.78 rating. Moreover, he didn’t show any improvement on Wednesday when he did little to nothing (0.31 rating) in Astralis’ defeat against Mirage (4-7).

TSM enter NAL Stage 3 Playday 3 with a perfect 2-0 record and two commanding victories against Mirage (7-3) and beastcoast (7-1). With such results, TSM can be considered one of the top NA R6S esports teams, but they came out of the gates very hot last stage (2-0), only to lose five of the remaining seven games and finish in eighth place.

It’s also worth noting that TSM had a very easy schedule, so we wouldn’t overreact to their success. However, while TSM still have a lot more to prove, it’s tough to be bullish on Astralis, who lost both of their games, including against Mirage (4-7).

Astralis still have plenty of time to bounce back, but we have to see a bit more from them before we will consider backing them at $1.61 with the top esport betting sites. This could be a close game, so taking overs ($2.00) is not a bad choice, but we like TSM at plus money better.

This might sound like a hot take, but beastcoast is not one of the teams we expect to compete for the NAL Stage 2 title. They’re on a hot streak, having beaten Spacestation Gaming (7-4) and XSET (7-5), but we have to acknowledge that beastcoast played well above their level in those games, and we’re doubtful they’ll manage to keep performing at the same pace.

Parabellum Esports are 1-1-1-1, and they didn’t have a good week. Even though they scraped by XSET (8-7) on Tuesday, they collapsed against DarkZero (3-7), which isn’t a good look.

If we focus purely on form, beastcoast seem like a wiser choice, but beastcoast’s level of play isn’t sustainable with their talent. Therefore, we’re on Parabellum to bounce back from their painful loss and win with at least two rounds to spare at $1.80.

XSET were considered the top team ahead of the NAL Stage 2, but they’re now closer to sixth-best. The talent is still there, but XSET’s results over the first two weeks are rather disappointing. They won against Spacestation Gaming (7-4) on day one and picked up an easy victory against Mirage (7-1) a day later, then underdelivered against Parabellum (7-8) and beastcoast (5-7).

TSM are 3-0-1-0, and based on how this stage has looked so far, they’re clearly the best North American Rainbow Six Siege esports team. Besides their 6-8 loss against Oxygen Esports last Tuesday, TSM have looked unstoppable, picking up wins against Mirage, Soniqs, and Astralis, which aren’t the top teams in the region, but TSM have yet to show anything that would make us doubt them.

TSM won this match 7-3 at the end of March, and if their – and XSET’s – past performances are any indication, they should secure another straightforward victory on Tuesday.

DarkZero Esports are a solid mid-table team, but we wouldn’t rank them as one of the best in the league. They’re 2-0-0-2, with wins against beastcoast (7-2) and Parabellum Esports (7-3) and two defeats against Spacestation Gaming (7-2) and Soniqs (3-7), proving that they can be competitive while also a bit inconsistent.

Astralis have won just two games, but they’re at five points with a 1-1-0-2 record. That isn’t that bad, and with the schedule ahead, they could easily break into the top five. Last week they beat Mirage (7-2) and played a close series against TSM (5-7), which is a solid outcome.

We would not consider Astralis one of the top teams currently, but that’s because we have yet to see David “iconic” Ifidon step up. Still, he was great in Stage 1, and Astralis will quickly start climbing the ladder if he can find his form.

The R6S odds on this match suggest that Astralis are weaker, but we would disagree. Admittedly, they’re not at their best yet, but Astralis’ ceiling is higher than DarkZero’s, so this is an easy bet on the underdogs.

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The organization confirmed the news via Twitter:

“We would like to share another update on our Rainbow Six NAL roster. We say goodbye to @CreatorsTh. Thank for your efforts coming into our first tour of the Pro League. We wish you the best with your future path in Rainbow Six Esports.”

Creators’ dismissal comes only a few days after Parabellum announced they will be letting go of Kyle “Whimpy” Anderson, who joined in March 2022.

“We would like to thank @WhimpyKid2 for his time with us,” the tweet read.

“Our debut in the #R6NAL was a special moment and we are grateful for his contribution.

“We wish you the best for the future!”

Although there have been no replacements announced yet, the rumor making the rounds is that Parabellum are looking to acquire Shaun “Gunnar” Pottorff.

Various sources are reporting that Gunnar and Parabellum have yet to reach an agreement, however, and that the player recently trialled with Mirage.

Parabellum finished seventh in Stage 1, and although they got some points for the Six Invitational, they finished outside of the top four and so missed out on qualification to the just-concluded Six Charlotte Major.

Despite their poor run in Stage 1, they had some decent victories and will be looking to build on those as they prepare for Stage 2.

A top-four finish will guarantee a spot in the Six August Major, where four North American teams will compete for the soon-to-be-announced prize fund.

At the moment, Parabellum are outside of the top 16 in the global points standings. If the season ended today, they would not be participating in the 2023 Six Invitational.

However, they have a chance to turn things around with strong performances in the four remaining events this year.

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